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Swit vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
11/25/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Swit46%
×Draw24%
Warta Sieradz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
1.65
Warta Sieradz
1.30

Swit creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 68 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Swit or draw
70%
Swit or Warta Sieradz
76%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
54%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
24%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
81%
Swit 2+ goals
49%
Swit 3+ goals
23%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
73%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
37%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
60%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swit scores more
46%
level
24%
Warta Sieradz scores more
30%

Swit at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swit vs Warta Sieradz

Warta Sieradz beat Swit 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.