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Swit vs Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
0 – 0
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
11/25/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Swit60%
×Draw21%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
2.06
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
1.05

Swit creates 96% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
0.78

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
2.22

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swit or draw
81%
Swit or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
79%
Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie
40%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
37%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
87%
Swit 2+ goals
61%
Swit 3+ goals
34%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals
65%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals
28%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
76%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Swit scores more
60%
level
21%
Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more
19%

Swit at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Swit 0–0 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Swit and Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.