Swit 4–1 Pilica Białobrzegi: Result & Stats

Swit

FT

4 – 1

Pilica Białobrzegi

4/29/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Swit59%

×Draw20%

Pilica Białobrzegi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitExpected goals in this matchPilica Białobrzegi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.23

Swit

2.17

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.23

Swit creates 76% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

1.90

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Swit

1.90

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.13

allows per match

Swit

1.32

Pilica Białobrzegi

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swit+0.00on par

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Swit or draw

79%

Swit or Pilica Białobrzegi

80%

Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi

41%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+

36%

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals

89%

Swit 2+ goals

64%

Swit 3+ goals

36%

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

71%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

35%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)

74%

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.17

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Swit scores more

59%

level

20%

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

21%

Swit at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff