Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Swit vs Łomża — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Łomża
Łomża
5/31/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Swit39%
×Draw24%
Łomża37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
1.57
Łomża
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Łomża
1.76

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Łomża
1.24

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Łomża+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Łomża →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swit or draw
63%
Swit or Łomża
76%
Draw or Łomża
61%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
19%
Łomża wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
79%
Swit 2+ goals
46%
Swit 3+ goals
21%
Łomża 1+ goals
79%
Łomża 2+ goals
45%
Łomża 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
51%
Łomża (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Łomża away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Łomża defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Łomża attack 1.76 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swit scores more
39%
level
24%
Łomża scores more
37%

Swit at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swit 4 – 3 Łomża

Swit beat Łomża 4-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.