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Swit vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
S. Kuzma 85'
Y. Yampol 83'
J. Nawotczynski 30'
Unknown 82'
6/1/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Swit54%
×Draw22%
Mamry Giżycko24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
1.98
Mamry Giżycko
1.27

Swit creates 56% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Swit or draw
76%
Swit or Mamry Giżycko
78%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
46%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
31%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
86%
Swit 2+ goals
59%
Swit 3+ goals
31%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
72%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
36%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
69%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Swit scores more
54%
level
22%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
24%

Swit at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
J. Nawotczynski
82'
83'
Y. Yampol
85'
S. Kuzma

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Swit 3–1 Mamry Giżycko

Swit beat Mamry Giżycko 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Nawotczynski (30'), ? (82'), Y. Yampol (83'), S. Kuzma (85').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.