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Swit vs Kutno — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Swit
Swit
FT
3 – 0
Kutno
Kutno
10/17/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Swit48%
×Draw23%
Kutno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swit
1.82
Kutno
1.38

Swit creates 32% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 36 away

creates per match

Swit
1.90
Kutno
1.44

allows per match

Swit
1.32
Kutno
1.75

finishing

Swit+0.00on par
Kutno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Kutno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Swit or draw
71%
Swit or Kutno
77%
Draw or Kutno
52%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+
26%
Kutno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals
84%
Swit 2+ goals
54%
Swit 3+ goals
27%
Kutno 1+ goals
75%
Kutno 2+ goals
40%
Kutno 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)
62%
Kutno (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Kutno away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Kutno defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kutno attack 1.44 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Swit scores more
48%
level
23%
Kutno scores more
29%

Swit at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swit vs Kutno

Swit beat Kutno 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki.