Swit 1–0 Jagiellonia II: Result & Stats

Swit

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jagiellonia II

8/3/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Swit46%

×Draw23%

Jagiellonia II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwitExpected goals in this matchJagiellonia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.40

Swit

1.78

Jagiellonia II

1.40

Swit creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 103 away

1.90

creates per match

1.48

1.32

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Swit

1.90

Jagiellonia II

1.48

allows per match

Swit

1.32

Jagiellonia II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swit+0.00on par

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swit ↓

Jagiellonia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Swit or draw

70%

Swit or Jagiellonia II

77%

Draw or Jagiellonia II

54%

Winning margin

Swit wins by 2+

25%

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swit 1+ goals

83%

Swit 2+ goals

53%

Swit 3+ goals

26%

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

75%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

41%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Swit (draw refunded)

60%

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swit at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 104 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swit attack 1.90 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Swit defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swit scores more

46%

level

23%

Jagiellonia II scores more

30%

Swit at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff