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Świt Skolwin vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
4/11/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Świt Skolwin45%
×Draw23%
Wisła Puławy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.81
Wisła Puławy
1.51

Świt Skolwin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
1.79
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
1.53
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
68%
Świt Skolwin or Wisła Puławy
77%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
55%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
24%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
84%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
54%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
27%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
78%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
44%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
58%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 1.79 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
45%
level
23%
Wisła Puławy scores more
32%

Świt Skolwin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Świt Skolwin 2–4 Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Świt Skolwin 4-2 in II Liga - East on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.