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Świt Skolwin vs Olimpia Grudziądz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
0 – 3
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
3/11/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Świt Skolwin36%
×Draw25%
Olimpia Grudziądz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.35
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Olimpia Grudziądz
2.09

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Olimpia Grudziądz
0.45

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
61%
Świt Skolwin or Olimpia Grudziądz
75%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
64%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
16%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
74%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
39%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
15%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
76%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
41%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
48%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 2.09 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
36%
level
25%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
39%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Świt Skolwin 0–3 Olimpia Grudziądz

Olimpia Grudziądz beat Świt Skolwin 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.