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Świt Skolwin vs Noteć Czarnków — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Noteć Czarnków
Noteć Czarnków
S. Piekarski 63'
A. Kaczmarek 12'
1/17/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Świt Skolwin45%
×Draw27%
Noteć Czarnków29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
1.42
Noteć Czarnków
1.08

Świt Skolwin creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
1.50
Noteć Czarnków
0.67

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
1.50
Noteć Czarnków
1.33

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Noteć Czarnków+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Noteć Czarnków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
71%
Świt Skolwin or Noteć Czarnków
73%
Draw or Noteć Czarnków
55%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
22%
Noteć Czarnków wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
76%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
41%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
17%
Noteć Czarnków 1+ goals
66%
Noteć Czarnków 2+ goals
29%
Noteć Czarnków 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
61%
Noteć Czarnków (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Noteć Czarnków away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 1.50 + Noteć Czarnków defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Noteć Czarnków attack 0.67 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
45%
level
27%
Noteć Czarnków scores more
29%

Świt Skolwin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
A. Kaczmarek
63'
S. Piekarski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świt Skolwin vs Noteć Czarnków

Noteć Czarnków beat Świt Skolwin 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2025.

Goals: A. Kaczmarek (12'), S. Piekarski (63').