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Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
3 – 1
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
8/2/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Miejski Skolwin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Świt Skolwin67%
×Draw20%
Górnik Konin13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
2.04
Górnik Konin
0.78

Świt Skolwin creates 162% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.26
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
0.74
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
87%
Świt Skolwin or Górnik Konin
80%
Draw or Górnik Konin
33%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
42%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
87%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
60%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
33%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
54%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
18%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
83%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.74 · 69 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.26 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Świt Skolwin defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
67%
level
20%
Górnik Konin scores more
13%

Świt Skolwin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Świt Skolwin 3–1 Górnik Konin

Świt Skolwin beat Górnik Konin 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Skolwin in Szczecin.