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Świt Skolwin vs Flota Świnoujście — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Świt Skolwin
Świt Skolwin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Flota Świnoujście
Flota Świnoujście
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Świt Skolwin65%
×Draw18%
Flota Świnoujście17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świt Skolwin
2.40
Flota Świnoujście
1.14

Świt Skolwin creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Świt Skolwin
2.00
Flota Świnoujście
0.60

allows per match

Świt Skolwin
1.67
Flota Świnoujście
2.80

finishing

Świt Skolwin+0.00on par
Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świt Skolwin ↓

Flota Świnoujście →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Świt Skolwin or draw
83%
Świt Skolwin or Flota Świnoujście
82%
Draw or Flota Świnoujście
35%

Winning margin

Świt Skolwin wins by 2+
43%
Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Świt Skolwin 1+ goals
91%
Świt Skolwin 2+ goals
69%
Świt Skolwin 3+ goals
42%
Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals
68%
Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals
32%
Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Świt Skolwin (draw refunded)
79%
Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świt Skolwin at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świt Skolwin attack 2.00 + Flota Świnoujście defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Flota Świnoujście attack 0.60 + Świt Skolwin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Świt Skolwin scores more
65%
level
18%
Flota Świnoujście scores more
17%

Świt Skolwin at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Świt Skolwin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Świt
Flota
Tomasz Kafarski
Manager: Tomasz Kafarski
Karol Szweda
Manager: Karol Szweda

Friendlies Clubs: Świt Skolwin 3–2 Flota Świnoujście

Świt Skolwin beat Flota Świnoujście 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.