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Swindon Town W vs Plymouth Argyle W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Swindon Town W
Swindon Town W
FT
0 – 3
Plymouth Argyle W
Plymouth Argyle W
11/27/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Swindon Town W57%
×Draw20%
Plymouth Argyle W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town W
2.25
Plymouth Argyle W
1.35

Swindon Town W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Swindon Town W
2.20
Plymouth Argyle W
1.71

allows per match

Swindon Town W
1.00
Plymouth Argyle W
2.29

finishing

Swindon Town W+0.00on par
Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town W ↓

Plymouth Argyle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Swindon Town W or draw
78%
Swindon Town W or Plymouth Argyle W
80%
Draw or Plymouth Argyle W
43%

Winning margin

Swindon Town W wins by 2+
36%
Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Swindon Town W 1+ goals
89%
Swindon Town W 2+ goals
65%
Swindon Town W 3+ goals
39%
Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals
74%
Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals
39%
Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town W (draw refunded)
72%
Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Plymouth Argyle W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town W attack 2.20 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

Plymouth Argyle W attack 1.71 + Swindon Town W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Swindon Town W scores more
57%
level
20%
Plymouth Argyle W scores more
22%

Swindon Town W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Swindon Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swindon Town W vs Plymouth Argyle W

Plymouth Argyle W beat Swindon Town W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.