Swindon Town W 1–0 Dulwich Hamlet W: Result & Stats

Swindon Town W

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dulwich Hamlet W

10/26/2025

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundCounty Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Swindon Town W26%

×Draw21%

Dulwich Hamlet W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon Town WExpected goals in this matchDulwich Hamlet W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.20

Swindon Town W

1.50

Dulwich Hamlet W

2.20

Dulwich Hamlet W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

3.40

1.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Swindon Town W

2.20

Dulwich Hamlet W

3.40

allows per match

Swindon Town W

1.00

Dulwich Hamlet W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town W+0.00on par

Dulwich Hamlet W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town W ↓

Dulwich Hamlet W →

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Swindon Town W or draw

47%

Swindon Town W or Dulwich Hamlet W

79%

Draw or Dulwich Hamlet W

74%

Winning margin

Swindon Town W wins by 2+

12%

Dulwich Hamlet W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Swindon Town W 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town W 2+ goals

44%

Swindon Town W 3+ goals

19%

Dulwich Hamlet W 1+ goals

89%

Dulwich Hamlet W 2+ goals

64%

Dulwich Hamlet W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town W (draw refunded)

33%

Dulwich Hamlet W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town W at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Dulwich Hamlet W away — creates 3.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town W attack 2.20 + Dulwich Hamlet W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dulwich Hamlet W attack 3.40 + Swindon Town W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Swindon Town W scores more

26%

level

21%

Dulwich Hamlet W scores more

53%

Dulwich Hamlet W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dulwich Hamlet W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff