Swindon Town 2–1 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sutton Utd

H. McKirdy 49'

J. Davison 14'

J. Kizzi 28'

3/15/2022

League Two · Round 37The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Swindon Town49%

×Draw24%

Sutton Utd26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.17

Swindon Town

1.69

Sutton Utd

1.17

Swindon Town creates 44% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 69 away

1.65

creates per match

1.12

1.22

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.65

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.22

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

74%

Swindon Town or Sutton Utd

76%

Draw or Sutton Utd

51%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

26%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

82%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

50%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

24%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

65%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Swindon Town scores more

49%

level

24%

Sutton Utd scores more

26%

Swindon Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. McKirdy

Swindon Town · F

7.7

Match Events

14'

J. Davison↳ J. Wollacott

28'

J. Kizzi↳ E. Boldewijn

35'

Louis Reed

49'

Enzio Boldewijn

49'

H. McKirdy↳ J. Williams

60'

J. Payne← R. Aguiar

63'

Ellis Iandolo

70'

Josh Davison

72'

K. Kouassi← R. Bennett

83'

85'

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

C. Dundas← B. Goodliffe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonSutton

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots9

2Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked3

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

388Total Passes233

286Accurate Passes130

74%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4