Swindon Town 0–1 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stockport County

3/25/2023

League Two · Round 38The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Swindon Town35%

×Draw25%

Stockport County39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.46

Swindon Town

1.37

Stockport County

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 47 away

1.61

creates per match

1.72

1.19

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.61

Stockport County

1.72

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.19

Stockport County

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

61%

Swindon Town or Stockport County

75%

Draw or Stockport County

65%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

16%

Stockport County wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

75%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

40%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

16%

Stockport County 1+ goals

77%

Stockport County 2+ goals

43%

Stockport County 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

47%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swindon Town scores more

35%

level

25%

Stockport County scores more

39%

Stockport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff