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Swindon Town vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
18:45
Rochdale
Rochdale
4/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 44County Ground
Big match
47%
Swindon Town
model favours
47%26%27%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Swindon Town47%
×Draw26%
Rochdale27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.50
Rochdale
1.08

Swindon Town creates 39% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 56 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.65
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.22
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
73%
Swindon Town or Rochdale
74%
Draw or Rochdale
53%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
23%
Rochdale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
44%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%
Rochdale 1+ goals
66%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
63%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swindon Town scores more
47%
level
26%
Rochdale scores more
27%

Swindon Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Rochdale
Balanced
53%Possession51%
72%Pass accuracy70%
12.6ShotsBiggest gap10.3
1.50xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownRochdale

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Swindon Town
3
Draws
1
Rochdale
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 67%
4–43–00–02–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town face Rochdale (League Two)

League Two returns with Swindon Town hosting Rochdale. Match starts April 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swindon Town host Rochdale at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.