Swindon Town 3–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

H. McKirdy 81'

J. Williams 50'

J. Wakeling 1'

8/20/2022

League Two · Round 5The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Swindon Town47%

×Draw26%

Rochdale27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Swindon Town

1.50

Rochdale

1.08

Swindon Town creates 39% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 56 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

1.22

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.65

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.22

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

73%

Swindon Town or Rochdale

74%

Draw or Rochdale

53%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

23%

Rochdale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

44%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

19%

Rochdale 1+ goals

66%

Rochdale 2+ goals

29%

Rochdale 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

63%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Swindon Town scores more

47%

level

26%

Rochdale scores more

27%

Swindon Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. McKirdy

Swindon Town · F

8.3

Match Events

1'

J. Wakeling

41'

Saidou Khan

50'

J. Williams↳ J. Wakeling

66'

Cameron John

68'

E. Brierley← T. Diagouraga

68'

R. Tulloch← A. Odoh

76'

Ben Gladwin

77'

R. Aguiar← S. Khan

78'

T. Shade← J. Williams

81'

H. McKirdy↳ R. Aguiar

83'

T. Adeloye← J. Wakeling

85'

T. Sinclair← D. Rodney

85'

A. White← C. John

85'

C. Malley← J. Ball

90+1'

Ethan Brierley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonRochdale

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots5

10Corners3

7Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots5

10On Target0

7Off Target5

3Blocked0

8Inside Box2

12Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

484Total Passes437

418Accurate Passes361

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides7