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Swindon Town vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Rochdale
Rochdale
M. Smith 41'
A. Grant 33'
T. Smith 4'
J. Keohane 90+2'
9/12/2020League OneLeague One · Round 1The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town39%
×Draw25%
Rochdale37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.48
Rochdale
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 72 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.10
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
63%
Swindon Town or Rochdale
75%
Draw or Rochdale
61%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
19%
Rochdale wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
77%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
43%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%
Rochdale 1+ goals
76%
Rochdale 2+ goals
42%
Rochdale 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
51%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swindon Town scores more
39%
level
25%
Rochdale scores more
37%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
A. GrantSwindon TownSwindon Town · M
7.5

Match Events

4'
T. Smith
33'
A. Grant↳ D. Jaiyesimi
41'
M. Smith
46'
Diallang Jaiyesimi
62'
F. Tavares← A. Morley
73'
K. Baah← S. Dooley
82'
B. Pitman← T. Smith
86'
H. Hope← D. Jaiyesimi
88'
Matthew Lund
90'
Brett Pitman
90+4'
T. Curran← J. Payne
90+2'
J. Keohane↳ K. Baah

Possession

49%Swindon

Shots

11Swindon

Pass accuracy

50%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonRochdale
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots7
4Corners2
12Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots7
6On Target2
1Off Target4
4Blocked1
10Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
465Total Passes474
347Accurate Passes356
75%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Rochdale

Swindon Town beat Rochdale 3-1 in League One on September 12, 2020.

Goals: T. Smith (4'), A. Grant (33'), M. Smith (41'), J. Keohane (90+2').

Rochdale controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.