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Swindon Town vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
15:00
Oldham
Oldham
2/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 29County Ground
45%
Swindon Town
model favours
45%25%30%

Swindon Town score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Swindon Town45%
×Draw25%
Oldham30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.56
Oldham
1.23

Swindon Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 42 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.73
Oldham
1.12

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.33
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
70%
Swindon Town or Oldham
75%
Draw or Oldham
55%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
23%
Oldham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
79%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
46%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
21%
Oldham 1+ goals
71%
Oldham 2+ goals
35%
Oldham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
60%
Oldham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.33 · 49 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.73 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Oldham attack 1.12 + Swindon Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Swindon Town scores more
45%
level
25%
Oldham scores more
30%

Swindon Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 10 games running
  • 70% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Swindon Town play Attack-heavy, Oldham Defensively solid
  • Swindon Town outscore their xG (2.0 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
Oldham
Defensively solid
54%Possession47%
72%Pass accuracy63%
12.5Shots11.8
1.63xGBiggest gap1.40
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownOldham

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWLLD
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs Oldham — Match Preview

Swindon Town face Oldham on February 6, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swindon Town host Oldham at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.