Oldham 1–3 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Oldham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Swindon Town

C. Piergianni 90'

T. Simpson 90+4', 79'

H. McKirdy 32'

10/30/2021

League Two · Round 15Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham38%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

Oldham

1.44

Swindon Town

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 155 away

1.45

creates per match

1.45

1.42

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Swindon Town

1.45

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Swindon Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

62%

Oldham or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

62%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

18%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

76%

Oldham 2+ goals

42%

Oldham 3+ goals

18%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

42%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

50%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oldham scores more

38%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

38%

Oldham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

L. Reed

Swindon Town · M

8.3

Match Events

26'

Jamie Bowden

32'

H. McKirdy↳ E. Iandolo

36'

Ellis Iandolo

46'

A. Odimayo← R. Crichlow

66'

J. Payne← J. Williams

71'

Harry McKirdy

74'

H. Vaughan← C. Whelan

79'

T. Simpson↳ L. Reed

81'

I. Modi← J. Bowden

83'

R. East← H. McKirdy

90'

C. Piergianni↳ B. Couto

90+4'

T. Simpson↳ J. Payne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamSwindon

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots15

4Corners7

9Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target10

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

7Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

338Total Passes484

259Accurate Passes411

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3