Swindon Town 2–0 Oldham: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oldham

12/14/2019

League Two · Round 21The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Swindon Town46%

×Draw25%

Oldham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.17

Swindon Town

1.53

Oldham

1.17

Swindon Town creates 31% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 111 away

1.61

creates per match

1.16

1.19

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.61

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.19

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

71%

Swindon Town or Oldham

75%

Draw or Oldham

54%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

23%

Oldham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

45%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

20%

Oldham 1+ goals

69%

Oldham 2+ goals

33%

Oldham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

61%

Oldham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.53

Oldham attack 1.16 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swindon Town scores more

46%

level

25%

Oldham scores more

29%

Swindon Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff