Swindon Town vs Newport County

Swindon Town

Preview

15:00

Newport County

3/20/2027

League Two · Round 36County Ground

Big match

50%

Swindon Town

model favours

50%23%27%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

62%

over 2.5 goals

62%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Swindon Town50%

×Draw23%

Newport County27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.33

Swindon Town

1.88

Newport County

1.33

Swindon Town creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

1.11

1.55

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.64

Newport County

1.11

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.55

Newport County

2.12

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more

Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

73%

Swindon Town or Newport County

77%

Draw or Newport County

50%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

28%

Newport County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

85%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

56%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

29%

Newport County 1+ goals

74%

Newport County 2+ goals

38%

Newport County 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

65%

Newport County (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.88

Newport County attack 1.11 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Swindon Town scores more

50%

level

23%

Newport County scores more

27%

Swindon Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 60% over 2.5)
Swindon Town have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Swindon Town sit 9, Newport County 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Swindon Town

Attack-heavy

Newport County

Balanced

53%Possession49%

71%Pass accuracy67%

12.3Shots11.6

1.48xGBiggest gap1.16

Swindon TownNewport County

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7

Swindon Town

0

Draws

3

Newport County

Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 40%

2–01–02–14–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

LLWL

County

DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff