Newport County 2–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

2/3/2024

League Two · Round 31Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Newport County39%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.32

Newport County

1.39

Swindon Town

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 184 home / 155 away

1.34

creates per match

1.45

1.20

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Swindon Town

1.45

allows per match

Newport County

1.20

Swindon Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

64%

Newport County or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

61%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

18%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

75%

Newport County 2+ goals

40%

Newport County 3+ goals

16%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

38%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

52%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 184 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Newport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Newport County scores more

39%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

36%

Newport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff