Swindon Town 2–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hull City

Joel Grant 54'

P. Caddis 31'

K. Lewis-Potter 16'

10/31/2020

League One · Round 10The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Swindon Town23%

×Draw23%

Hull City54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.78

Swindon Town

1.07

Hull City

1.78

Hull City creates 66% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

1.10

creates per match

2.09

1.48

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.10

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

46%

Swindon Town or Hull City

77%

Draw or Hull City

77%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

8%

Hull City wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

66%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

29%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

9%

Hull City 1+ goals

83%

Hull City 2+ goals

53%

Hull City 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

30%

Hull City (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Hull City attack 2.09 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Swindon Town scores more

23%

level

23%

Hull City scores more

54%

Hull City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

P. Caddis

Swindon Town · D

7.5

Match Events

16'

K. Lewis-Potter↳ G. Honeyman

31'

P. Caddis↳ J. Smith

54'

Joel Grant↳ H. Hope

58'

J. Magennis← T. Eaves

59'

J. Scott← M. Wilks

66'

T. Mayer← G. Docherty

76'

Jordy de Wijs

83'

E. Iandolo← Joel Grant

86'

Callum Elder

90'

Keane Lewis-Potter

90+1'

B. Pitman← J. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonHull

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots14

4Corners8

7Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots14

3On Target6

1Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

427Total Passes303

305Accurate Passes206

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3