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Swindon Town vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
14:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
5/8/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 46County Ground
Big match
42%
Swindon Town
model favours
42%24%33%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town42%
×Draw24%
Gillingham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.58
Gillingham
1.38

Swindon Town creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Gillingham
1.21

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Gillingham
1.53

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
67%
Swindon Town or Gillingham
76%
Draw or Gillingham
58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
21%
Gillingham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
79%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
47%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
21%
Gillingham 1+ goals
75%
Gillingham 2+ goals
40%
Gillingham 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
56%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more
42%
level
24%
Gillingham scores more
33%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Gillingham
Balanced
53%Possession48%
71%Pass accuracy64%
12.5Shots11.7
1.50xGBiggest gap1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownGillingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Swindon Town
5
Draws
3
Gillingham
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
2–02–01–11–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Gillingham
WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs Gillingham — Match Preview

Swindon Town face Gillingham on May 8, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swindon Town host Gillingham at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.