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Gillingham vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
2/13/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Gillingham36%
×Draw27%
Swindon Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.25
Swindon Town
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 155 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.08
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Gillingham
1.08
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
63%
Gillingham or Swindon Town
73%
Draw or Swindon Town
64%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
71%
Gillingham 2+ goals
36%
Gillingham 3+ goals
13%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
72%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
49%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.08 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Gillingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gillingham scores more
36%
level
27%
Swindon Town scores more
37%

Swindon Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Swindon Town

Gillingham and Swindon Town drew 2-2 in League Two on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.