Swindon Town 1–3 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

B. Pitman 41'

K. Dempsey 68'

V. Oliver 63', 59'

3/13/2021

League One · Round 36The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town35%

×Draw27%

Gillingham39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.32

Swindon Town

1.24

Gillingham

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 99 away

1.10

creates per match

1.17

1.48

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.10

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

61%

Swindon Town or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

65%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Gillingham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

35%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

38%

Gillingham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

47%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swindon Town scores more

35%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

39%

Gillingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Oliver

Gillingham · F

8.3

Match Events

41'

B. Pitman↳ J. Lyden

46'

A. MacDonald← T. OConnor

47'

Connor Ogilvie

52'

J. Akinde← O. Lee

59'

63'

68'

76'

76'

76'

E. Iandolo← D. Thompson

77'

A. Odimayo← T. Broadbent

77'

T. Curran← D. Conroy

77'

J. Payne← Joel Grant

78'

T. Smith← A. Grant

90+1'

R. McKenzie← J. Graham

90+3'

H. Woods← S. OKeefe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonGillingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots11

2Corners6

13Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target4

3Off Target3

5Blocked4

8Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

355Total Passes258

227Accurate Passes145

64%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1