Swindon Town vs Doncaster — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Swindon Town36%
Doncaster38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 23 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Swindon Town ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Swindon Town at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches
Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Swindon Town attack 1.09 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35
Doncaster attack 1.13 + Swindon Town defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Doncaster at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Luton
Barnsley
Charlton
Portsmouth
SunderlandDoncaster
Peterborough
Coventry
Burton Albion
Blackpool
Fleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Southend
AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
Walsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Swindon Town host Doncaster on Saturday, 16 January 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Doncaster
Doncaster beat Swindon Town 2-1 in League One on January 16, 2021.
The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.