Doncaster 0–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

9/2/2023

League Two · Round 6Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Doncaster40%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.31

Doncaster

1.45

Swindon Town

1.31

Doncaster creates 11% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 155 away

1.47

creates per match

1.45

1.18

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Swindon Town

1.45

allows per match

Doncaster

1.18

Swindon Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

66%

Doncaster or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

60%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

19%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

77%

Doncaster 2+ goals

42%

Doncaster 3+ goals

18%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

38%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

54%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Doncaster defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Doncaster scores more

40%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Doncaster at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff