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Swindon Town vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
15:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
1/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 23County Ground
Big match
42%
Swindon Town
model favours
42%23%34%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Swindon Town42%
×Draw23%
Crawley Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.72
Crawley Town
1.53

Swindon Town creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
66%
Swindon Town or Crawley Town
77%
Draw or Crawley Town
58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
22%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
82%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
51%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
25%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
78%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
45%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
55%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.72

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more
42%
level
23%
Crawley Town scores more
34%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Swindon Town sit 9, Crawley Town 22 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
Crawley Town
Balanced
53%Possession54%
71%Pass accuracy71%
12.3Shots12.7
1.48xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownCrawley Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Swindon Town
2
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 50%
2–21–01–36–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town face Crawley Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Swindon Town hosting Crawley Town. Match starts January 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swindon Town host Crawley Town at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.