Swindon Town 6–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crawley Town

8/26/2023

League Two · Round 5The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 157+ matches

Swindon Town48%

×Draw25%

Crawley Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.14

Swindon Town

1.62

Crawley Town

1.14

Swindon Town creates 42% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 158 away

1.61

creates per match

1.08

1.20

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.61

Crawley Town

1.08

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.20

Crawley Town

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

73%

Swindon Town or Crawley Town

75%

Draw or Crawley Town

52%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

25%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

80%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

48%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

22%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

68%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

32%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

64%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Swindon Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Swindon Town scores more

48%

level

25%

Crawley Town scores more

27%

Swindon Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff