Swindon Town 0–1 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crawley Town

Filipe Morais 45+1'

1/26/2019

League Two · Round 30County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town44%

×Draw23%

Crawley Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.45

Swindon Town

1.71

Crawley Town

1.45

Swindon Town creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

1.42

1.48

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.62

Crawley Town

1.42

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Crawley Town

1.79

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more

Crawley Town-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

67%

Swindon Town or Crawley Town

77%

Draw or Crawley Town

56%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

23%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

82%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

51%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

24%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

77%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

42%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

57%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Crawley Town defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Crawley Town attack 1.42 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swindon Town scores more

44%

level

23%

Crawley Town scores more

33%

Swindon Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

Filipe Morais

56'

S. Twine← M. Doughty

70'

D. Rose← J. McCourt

73'

B. House← M. Richards

Swindon

Crawley

1

5

14

17

18

22

⚽

21

11

28

2

9

1

33

32

29

8

3

▼

Doughty

4

▼

McCourt

19

Carroll

9

▼

Richards

22

Woolery

10

Anderson

Manager: R. Wellens

56'▲S. Twine←▼M. Doughty

70'▲D. Rose←▼J. McCourt

73'▲B. House←▼M. Richards

Swindon Town substitutes

24Twine30Rose18House2Knoyle23McCormick26Conroy31Taylor

Manager: G. Cioffi

Crawley Town substitutes

3Doherty10Poleon12Mersin15Nathaniel-George16Maguire33N'Gala