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Swindon Town vs Coventry — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
2 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Swindon Town48%
×Draw24%
Coventry28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.65
Coventry
1.19

Swindon Town creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
2.00
Coventry
1.71

allows per match

Swindon Town
0.67
Coventry
1.29

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
72%
Swindon Town or Coventry
76%
Draw or Coventry
52%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
25%
Coventry wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
81%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
49%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
23%
Coventry 1+ goals
70%
Coventry 2+ goals
33%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
64%
Coventry (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 2.00 + Coventry defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Coventry attack 1.71 + Swindon Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Swindon Town scores more
48%
level
24%
Coventry scores more
28%

Swindon Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Swindon Town 2–1 Coventry

Swindon Town beat Coventry 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.