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Swindon Town vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
14:00
Colchester
Colchester
9/5/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 5County Ground
Big match
46%
Swindon Town
model favours
46%23%31%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Swindon Town46%
×Draw23%
Colchester31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.73
Colchester
1.38

Swindon Town creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Colchester
1.21

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Colchester
1.81

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
69%
Swindon Town or Colchester
77%
Draw or Colchester
54%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
24%
Colchester wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
82%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
52%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
25%
Colchester 1+ goals
75%
Colchester 2+ goals
40%
Colchester 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
60%
Colchester (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Colchester attack 1.21 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swindon Town scores more
46%
level
23%
Colchester scores more
31%

Swindon Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
Colchester
Balanced
53%Possession51%
72%Pass accuracy71%
12.5Shots11.4
1.50xGBiggest gap1.31
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownColchester

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Swindon Town
4
Draws
4
Colchester
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
0–30–03–20–42–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs Colchester — Match Preview

Swindon Town face Colchester on September 5, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swindon Town host Colchester at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.