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Colchester vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
12/3/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 18JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

Colchester40%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.40
Swindon Town
1.27

Colchester creates 10% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 155 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.37
Swindon Town
1.45

allows per match

Colchester
1.09
Swindon Town
1.43

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
66%
Colchester or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
60%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
19%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
75%
Colchester 2+ goals
41%
Colchester 3+ goals
17%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
72%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
54%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Swindon Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Swindon Town attack 1.45 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchester scores more
40%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
34%

Colchester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Colchester 4–0 Swindon Town

Colchester beat Swindon Town 4-0 in League Two on December 3, 2024.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.