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Swindon Town vs Chippenham Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town
H. Sady 11'
7/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Swindon Town44%
×Draw28%
Chippenham Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.33
Chippenham Town
1.00

Swindon Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
2.00
Chippenham Town
1.33

allows per match

Swindon Town
0.67
Chippenham Town
0.67

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Chippenham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Chippenham Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
72%
Swindon Town or Chippenham Town
72%
Draw or Chippenham Town
56%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
21%
Chippenham Town wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
74%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
38%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
15%
Chippenham Town 1+ goals
63%
Chippenham Town 2+ goals
26%
Chippenham Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
61%
Chippenham Town (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Chippenham Town away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 2.00 + Chippenham Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chippenham Town attack 1.33 + Swindon Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swindon Town scores more
44%
level
28%
Chippenham Town scores more
28%

Swindon Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
H. Sady

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Chippenham Town

Chippenham Town beat Swindon Town 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.

Goals: H. Sady (11').