Swindon Town 1–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

B. Pitman 75'

11/21/2020

League One · Round 13The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swindon Town40%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Swindon Town

1.35

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Swindon Town creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 131 away

1.10

creates per match

0.95

1.48

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.10

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

67%

Swindon Town or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

60%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

18%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

15%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

70%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

34%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

54%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.10 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swindon Town scores more

40%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

33%

Swindon Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

B. Pitman

Swindon Town · F

7.5

Match Events

38'

56'

62'

64'

71'

74'

Z. Westbrooke← C. Harries

75'

B. Pitman↳ M. Smith

78'

Sam Nicholson

87'

J. Baldwin← L. McCormick

87'

A. Koiki← D. Tutonda

90'

Edward Upson

90+1'

T. Broadbent← B. Pitman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots9

2Corners10

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target1

6Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

372Total Passes349

243Accurate Passes224

65%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1