Bristol Rovers 0–3 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Swindon Town

A. Drinan 33'

O. Clarke 28'

J. Snowdon 16'

12/13/2025

League Two · Round 20Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.23

Bristol Rovers

1.43

Swindon Town

1.23

Bristol Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.40

creates per match

1.34

1.13

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Swindon Town

1.34

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Swindon Town

1.46

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

68%

Bristol Rovers or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

42%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

35%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

56%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

42%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

32%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

O. Clarke

Swindon Town · M

8.5

Match Events

16'

J. Snowdon

27'

Shaqai Forde

28'

O. Clarke↳ F. Munroe

33'

A. Drinan↳ J. Snowdon

34'

Aaron Drinan

36'

Kacper Łopata

46'

J. Sparkes← R. Sotiriou

46'

46'

58'

58'

65'

O. Dewsbury← J. Cotterill

68'

P. Glatzel← O. Palmer

68'

D. Oldaker← F. Mabete

76'

R. Howley← A. Kilgour

77'

B. Bodin← T. Nichols

77'

J. McGregor← J. Snowdon

80'

J. Tabor← J. Ball

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolSwindon

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots18

1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.32

4Corners7

15Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots18

1On Target6

5Off Target6

5Blocked6

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

332Total Passes374

209Accurate Passes269

63%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

3Offsides1