Swindon Town 0–2 Barnet: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Barnet

D. Adeniran 90'

E. Osadebe 85'

8/19/2025

League Two · Round 4County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Swindon Town39%

×Draw24%

Barnet37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.48

Swindon Town

1.53

Barnet

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.64

creates per match

1.40

1.55

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.64

Barnet

1.40

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.55

Barnet

1.43

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more

Barnet-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

63%

Swindon Town or Barnet

76%

Draw or Barnet

61%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

19%

Barnet wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

45%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

20%

Barnet 1+ goals

77%

Barnet 2+ goals

43%

Barnet 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

51%

Barnet (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Barnet defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Barnet attack 1.40 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swindon Town scores more

39%

level

24%

Barnet scores more

37%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Osadebe

Barnet · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

Harry Smith

43'

Will Wright

58'

G. Kilkenny← H. Smith

59'

P. Glatzel← P. Ehibhatiomhan

59'

D. Butterworth← T. Nichols

66'

B. Bodin← J. Snowdon

75'

E. Osadebe← A. Hartigan

75'

S. High← R. Galvin

82'

L. Ndlovu← O. Hawkins

85'

90+11'

90+7'

90+1'

90+4'

D. Adeniran← C. Stead

90'

D. Adeniran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonBarnet

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots11

6Corners8

13Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots11

4On Target5

2Off Target3

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

284Total Passes266

178Accurate Passes165

63%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides9