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Swindon Town vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
4/13/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 44The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Swindon Town43%
×Draw27%
AFC Wimbledon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.34
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

Swindon Town creates 25% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 70 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.61
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.19
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
70%
Swindon Town or AFC Wimbledon
73%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
57%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
74%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
39%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
15%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
66%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
29%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
59%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.19 · 158 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.61 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.34

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Swindon Town defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swindon Town scores more
43%
level
27%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%

Swindon Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Swindon Town 3–2 AFC Wimbledon

Swindon Town beat AFC Wimbledon 3-2 in League Two on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.