Swindon Town 0–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

12/10/2022

League Two · Round 21The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Swindon Town44%

×Draw27%

AFC Wimbledon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.07

Swindon Town

1.38

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

Swindon Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 73 away

1.65

creates per match

0.93

1.22

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.65

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.22

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

71%

Swindon Town or AFC Wimbledon

73%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

56%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

21%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

75%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

40%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

16%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

66%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

60%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Swindon Town scores more

44%

level

27%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

29%

Swindon Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Brynn

Swindon Town · G

8.3

Match Events

29'

Frazer Blake-Tracy

63'

Harry Pell

69'

M. Roberts← J. Wakeling

71'

Alex Woodyard

75'

R. Hepburn-Murphy← T. Shade

75'

K. Hudlin← E. Chislett

81'

Edmond-Paris Maghoma

89'

Marcel Lavinier

90'

Josh Davison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonAFC

Overview

67%Possession33%

12Total Shots12

6Corners7

9Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots12

1On Target6

6Off Target3

5Blocked3

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

521Total Passes253

419Accurate Passes141

80%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1