Swindon Supermarine 2–0 Swindon Town

Swindon Supermarine

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

Trialist 85'

J. Harding 38'

7/9/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Webbs Wood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Swindon Supermarine17%

×Draw17%

Swindon Town67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon SupermarineExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.75

Swindon Supermarine

1.33

Swindon Town

2.75

Swindon Town creates 107% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

0.75

creates per match

3.00

2.50

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Swindon Supermarine

0.75

Swindon Town

3.00

allows per match

Swindon Supermarine

2.50

Swindon Town

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Supermarine+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Supermarine ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Swindon Supermarine or draw

33%

Swindon Supermarine or Swindon Town

83%

Draw or Swindon Town

83%

Winning margin

Swindon Supermarine wins by 2+

7%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Swindon Supermarine 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Supermarine 2+ goals

38%

Swindon Supermarine 3+ goals

15%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

93%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

75%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Swindon Supermarine (draw refunded)

20%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Supermarine at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Supermarine attack 0.75 + Swindon Town defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

Swindon Town attack 3.00 + Swindon Supermarine defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Swindon Supermarine scores more

17%

level

17%

Swindon Town scores more

67%

Swindon Town at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

J. Harding

85'

Trialist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff