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Swift Hesperange vs Wiltz — National Division 2018

Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wiltz
Wiltz
9/3/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 5Stade Alphonse Theis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Swift Hesperange57%
×Draw21%
Wiltz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swift Hesperange
2.05
Wiltz
1.21

Swift Hesperange creates 69% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

Swift Hesperange
2.19
Wiltz
1.31

allows per match

Swift Hesperange
1.11
Wiltz
1.92

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw
78%
Swift Hesperange or Wiltz
79%
Draw or Wiltz
43%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
34%
Wiltz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
87%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
61%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
33%
Wiltz 1+ goals
70%
Wiltz 2+ goals
34%
Wiltz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
72%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

Wiltz away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.92 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + Wiltz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.05

Wiltz attack 1.31 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more
57%
level
21%
Wiltz scores more
22%

Swift Hesperange at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Swift Hesperange 1–1 Wiltz

Swift Hesperange and Wiltz drew 1-1 in National Division on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Theis in Hesperange.