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Swift Hesperange vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
Preview
14:00
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
4/11/2027National DivisionNational Division · Round 24Stade Alphonse Theis
Big match
40%
F91 Dudelange
model favours
37%23%40%

Swift Hesperange win just 42% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Swift Hesperange37%
×Draw23%
F91 Dudelange40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swift Hesperange
1.65
F91 Dudelange
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 115 away

creates per match

Swift Hesperange
2.19
F91 Dudelange
2.37

allows per match

Swift Hesperange
1.11
F91 Dudelange
1.10

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw
60%
Swift Hesperange or F91 Dudelange
77%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
63%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
18%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
81%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
49%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
23%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
82%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
52%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
48%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.65

F91 Dudelange attack 2.37 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more
37%
level
23%
F91 Dudelange scores more
40%

F91 Dudelange at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hesperange
WWLLL
Dudelange
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swift Hesperange vs F91 Dudelange — Match Preview

Swift Hesperange face F91 Dudelange on April 11, 2027 in this National Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swift Hesperange host F91 Dudelange at Stade Alphonse Theis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.