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F91 Dudelange vs Swift Hesperange — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
11/23/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 13Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

F91 Dudelange41%
×Draw23%
Swift Hesperange36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.78
Swift Hesperange
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 90 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Swift Hesperange
2.10

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Swift Hesperange
1.10

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Swift Hesperange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
64%
F91 Dudelange or Swift Hesperange
77%
Draw or Swift Hesperange
59%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
22%
Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
83%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
53%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
26%
Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
81%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
49%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
53%
Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
41%
level
23%
Swift Hesperange scores more
36%

F91 Dudelange at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Swift Hesperange

F91 Dudelange beat Swift Hesperange 4-3 in National Division on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.