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Swift Hesperange vs F91 Dudelange — National Division 2018

Swift Hesperange
Swift Hesperange
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
11/28/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 13Stade Alphonse Theis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Swift Hesperange38%
×Draw23%
F91 Dudelange39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swift Hesperange
1.66
F91 Dudelange
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 112 away

creates per match

Swift Hesperange
2.19
F91 Dudelange
2.29

allows per match

Swift Hesperange
1.11
F91 Dudelange
1.13

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par
F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

F91 Dudelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw
61%
Swift Hesperange or F91 Dudelange
77%
Draw or F91 Dudelange
62%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+
19%
F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals
81%
Swift Hesperange 2+ goals
49%
Swift Hesperange 3+ goals
23%
F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
82%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
51%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)
49%
F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.66

F91 Dudelange attack 2.29 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more
38%
level
23%
F91 Dudelange scores more
39%

F91 Dudelange at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Swift Hesperange 1–0 F91 Dudelange

Swift Hesperange beat F91 Dudelange 1-0 in National Division on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Alphonse Theis in Hesperange.