Swift Hesperange 2–0 AS Jeunesse Esch

Swift Hesperange

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AS Jeunesse Esch

11/26/2023

National Division · Round 13Stade Alphonse Theis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Swift Hesperange52%

×Draw23%

AS Jeunesse Esch25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swift HesperangeExpected goals in this matchAS Jeunesse Esch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Swift Hesperange

1.82

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.21

Swift Hesperange creates 50% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

2.19

creates per match

1.31

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Swift Hesperange

2.19

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.31

allows per match

Swift Hesperange

1.11

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swift Hesperange ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Swift Hesperange or draw

75%

Swift Hesperange or AS Jeunesse Esch

77%

Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch

48%

Winning margin

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

29%

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

84%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

54%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

27%

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

70%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

34%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

67%

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swift Hesperange at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.11 · 90 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swift Hesperange attack 2.19 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.82

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Swift Hesperange scores more

52%

level

23%

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

25%

Swift Hesperange at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff