AS Jeunesse Esch 3–3 Swift Hesperange

AS Jeunesse Esch

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Swift Hesperange

2/23/2025

National Division · Round 18Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch31%

×Draw24%

Swift Hesperange45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Jeunesse EschExpected goals in this matchSwift Hesperange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.67

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.36

Swift Hesperange

1.67

Swift Hesperange creates 23% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 90 away

1.62

creates per match

2.10

1.23

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.62

Swift Hesperange

2.10

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch

1.23

Swift Hesperange

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Swift Hesperange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Swift Hesperange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw

55%

AS Jeunesse Esch or Swift Hesperange

76%

Draw or Swift Hesperange

69%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+

14%

Swift Hesperange wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals

74%

AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals

39%

AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals

16%

Swift Hesperange 1+ goals

81%

Swift Hesperange 2+ goals

50%

Swift Hesperange 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)

41%

Swift Hesperange (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Swift Hesperange away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + Swift Hesperange defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Swift Hesperange attack 2.10 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more

31%

level

24%

Swift Hesperange scores more

45%

Swift Hesperange at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Swift Hesperange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff