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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
9/16/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik43%
×Draw23%
Wiązownica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.71
Wiązownica
1.50

Świdniczanka Świdnik creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
66%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Wiązownica
77%
Draw or Wiązownica
57%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
22%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
82%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
51%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
24%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
78%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
44%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
56%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
43%
level
23%
Wiązownica scores more
34%

Świdniczanka Świdnik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Świdniczanka Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Świdniczanka Świdnik 4–1 Wiązownica

Świdniczanka Świdnik beat Wiązownica 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KS Świdniczanka in Świdnik.